From wcsbeau@ccs.carleton.ca Fri Jul 29 18:40:15 1994 Subject: More on Sanat Mehta (fwd) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 94 18:12:11 EDT Date: Fri, 29 Jul 1994 14:18:27 -0700 From: Patrick McCully INTERNATIONAL RIVERS NETWORK 1847 Berkeley Way Berkeley, California 94703, USA Tel: +1 510 848-1155 Fax: +1 510 848-1008 Sanat Mehta in the US (Continued) Some further comments from Himanshu Thakker of the NBA on Sanat Mehta's talk in NY as reported in the July 29 edition of India Abroad. The dam, which will reach a height of 110 metres next year . . . It is extremely unlikely that the dam will reach 110m next year. The construction schedule is set each year by the Sardar Sarovar Construction Advisory Committee (SSCAC). The Government of Gujarat and the Narmada Nigam proposed to the SSCAC on April 12 and May 30 1994 that the dam should be built to 110m above sea level by June 1995. Both times their proposal was turned down by the representatives from Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh and the central government ministries of environment and welfare. The MP government has publicly stated its opposition to the dam being raised so fast. At a meeting of the Narmada Control Authority (NCA) of March 8, 1994, the Secretary of the Ministry of Environment said that the construction on the dam after December 1993 and the closure of the sluice gates in February 1994 were both in violation of the NCA Environment Sub-Group recommendations. The Secretary, Ministry of Water Resources, replied that the work on the dam had proceeded according to SSCAC recommendations but the Environment Secretary responded that NCA decisions overruled those of the SSCAC. The other members of the NCA agreed with this position. In the year up to June 1994 the Nigam only managed to raise the height of the lowest blocks on the dam from 59m to 69m asl. To reach 110m asl next June would mean raising the height by 41m in the 1994-95 construction season. 'We will release water in June 1995 and generate 250 megawatts of power,' said Mehta. Only the first of the five 50 megawatt generators at the head of the SSP main canal will be in place by next June. The canal head powerhouse can only generate power when the water level is above 110m asl (the maximum level so far this year has been 85m). Even in the very unlikely event that the dam reaches 110m by June, the reservoir will only exceed this height for several months during and after the monsoon. Therefore even on the most generous assumptions the dam will be unable to generate more than 50 MW for a few months. Realistically, it is unlikely to be able to generate any power. 'will generate a revenue of Rs 2.25 billion in 1995 from supply of water (20%) set apart from industrial use . . . ' There will be minimal or no revenue from power generation. No pipelines or pumps are in place or planned to be in place by 1995 so there will be no revenue from domestic or industrial water supply (Himanshu says revenue from water supply in 1994 is a 'pipe dream'). That leaves revenue from irrigation. On July 1, 1994, the Gujarat minister of state for Narmada told the state assembly that 50,000 hectares would be irrigated with SSP water in 1995 (this caused an uproar in the assembly as previously announced targets for SSP irrigation development has been (year of announcement in brackets): 500,000 ha by 1992 (1988); 500,000 ha by 1993 (1990); 500,000 ha by 1994 (1991); 500,000 ha by 1995 (1992); and 200,000 by 1995 (1993). The current price paid by Gujarat farmers for irrigation water is around Rs. 200 per hectare. If water is supplied to 50,000 ha it will only provide Rs. 10 million in revenue. If irrigation of 50,000 ha were to provide Mehta's figure of Rs. 2.25 billion, farmers would have to pay a whopping Rs 45,000 per hectare for their water. However even the figure of 50,000 ha is unrealistic. In his statement of July 1, the minister of state also admitted that for the section of the main canal built, only some of the contracts had been awarded to build the branch canals, distributory canals, and minor canals. And no contracts had been awarded for the sub-minor or field channels which are actually to deliver the water to the crops. Furthermore there are significant problems with the construction of the first 12 km of the main canal. For example, people from the village of Gadkoi, one kilometre from the head of the main canal, have said they will not allow any construction to continue on the nearby stretch of canal until their outstanding land compensation claims are dealt with. 'the overall economic benefits come to Rs 276.29bn and the internal rate of return for the project . . . between 16.75 and 20%.' These figures are of course totally fictional. People who are able to attend Mehta's meetings could ask him what the actual expected receipts are from the different parts of the project (power, irrigation, domestic water supply, industrial water supply). Assuming any profits from irrigation is extremely speculative: no major irrigation project in India raises revenue which can even cover the cost of operating and maintaining the canals, never mind repaying the capital cost. Mehta could also be asked what he estimates operating and maintenance costs for SSP will be. ------------------------------------------ On Saturday, July 30, at 5.30 p.m. Mehta will be speaking at a public meeting at the Manav Sewa Mandir, 101 S. Church Street, Bensonville, Illinois. Phone 708-860-9797. Varsha Shah in Chicago (tel. 312 292 8032 fax 312 384 3539) would like to talk to people who are able to attend to coordinate questioning and press work. For more information contact: Patrick McCully at IRN. -- Ontario Public Interest Research Group - Carleton, 326 Unicentre, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel by Drive, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, K1S 5B6, (613) 788-2757. "The more I learn, the less I believe."