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dam-l Fwd: Kalabagh dam project - A critical view



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>Date: Tue, 18 Aug 1998 11:51:02 -0800
>From: SINDHWATCH@aol.com (by way of patrick@irn.org (Patrick McCully))
>Sender: owner-irn-narmada@igc.org
>Subject: Fwd: Kalabagh dam project - A critical view
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>X-Sender: patrick@pop.igc.org
>
>Kalabagh dam project - A critical view
>Engr Abdul Aziz Buriro
>The Frontier Post
>
>The Indo-Pak sub-continent and Hamalayas came into existence about 250
>million years ago. After great many changes, the Indus basin along with
>its tributaries took shape some 25 million years ago. The Indus itself and
>its tributaries since their coming into existence continued to change. At
>times it changed its course even up to 80 miles. The catchment area of
>river Indus had been calculated at approximately about 3,47,000 squire
>miles. It starts from Hamalayas at Kellash mounts, stretches to Mansrore
>lake and enters Kashmir. From Baltistan Skardu it enters Hazara district
>of NWFP and then through Attock comes down to Punjab, the Seraiki Belt
>then from Mithankot onward enters Sindh province near Kashmore and
>ultimately falls into the Arabian Sea. The total length of river is
>approximately about 2000 miles. It is one of the biggest 18 rivers in the
>world.
>
>Since time immemorial, the Indus River along with its five tributaries
>i.e. Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej and Biyas have been flowing un-checked
>because there were no protection bunds anywhere in whole of its length,
>therefore, it continued changing its course miles apart and its total
>width at some places was even ten to fifteen miles.
>After the conquest of India by the British it also became possible to
>control the flow of river Indus along with its tributaries and other
>rivers in Indian sub-continent. For exploitation of rich lands, the
>British authorities wanted raw-material such as cotton for their
>industries. Therefore, they started construction of canals and barrages.
>As soon as they completed their conquest of Sindh and Punjab by 1850, many
>canals were excavated and completed in undivided Punjab for controlling
>water of the tributaries of river Indus such as Ravi, Sutlej etc. When
>they prepared the Sutlej Valley project containing four barrages and
>eleven canals and the Thal project, the Sindh province objected to all
>these projects and wanted the government of India to first decide
>apportionment of the water of Indus and its tributaries between Punjab and
>Sindh provinces. On this reference from province of Sindh, government of
>India nominated the Anderson committee during 1935 which prepared its
>recommendations but deferred the Thal project. On disagreement of Punjab
>and due to some other reasons Anderson committee recommendations could not
>be implemented but government of India appointed Rao commission under the
>chairmanship of Justice of Calcutta High Court.
>In the light of Anderson Committee and Rao Commission reports, during the
>year 1945 Sindh-Punjab Draft Agreement was prepared for appointment of
>water. It was signed by engineers of both the provinces. According to this
>Sindh-Punjab Draft Agreement, water was distributed as follows:-
>Punjab         :48.33 Million Acre Feet
>Sindh         :48.74 M.A.F
>NWFP         :05.01 __
>Balochistan      :01.22 __
>Total:-         :103.3 MAF
>Surplus flood water was to be distributed in the provinces according to
>following formula:-
>Punjab :40%
>Sindh :40%
>NWFP :13%
>Balochistan :07%
>>From this agreement, it is concluded that total quantity of usable water
>was calculated to be about 103 MAF, before partition in 1945. During 1947,
>the Indian sub-continent was divided into two countries i.e Pakistan and
>Hindustan, therefore, all the previous arrangements became ineffective.
>After partition adhoc arrangements for distribution of water were made. In
>this adhoc arrangement, the present Punjab which is approximately half of
>undivided Punjab, following distribution was adopted. These arrangements
>were implemented by federal government without acquiescence of Sindh
>province rather without consulting it:-
>Punjab :53.94 MAF
>Sindh :44.09 =
>NWFP :05.63 =
>Balochistan :01.69 =
>Total:- :105.35 MAF
>This adhoc distribution was total injustice to the Sindh province. Punjab
>started getting about ten million acre feet more water than Sindh.
>According to this adhoc distribution surplus flood water was to be
>distributed as under:-
>Punjab  :37%
>Sindh  :37%
>NWFP  14%
>Balochistan  12%
>
>After partition the previous approved three barrages were also constructed
>on river Indus i.e Guddu Barrage, Taunsa Barrage and Kotri Barrage.
>After partition, there arose a dispute between India and Pakistan because
>India closed supply of  three eastern rivers, i.e Ravi, Sutlej and Biyas.
>Pakistan objected to it and then this matter went to international
>authorities for decision after hearing both the sides and after many
>deliberations, the matter was decided in September, 1960. The famous Indus
>Basin Treaty was signed. According to this treaty, water of three eastern
>rivers which was about 33.00 MAF was given to India and the water rights
>of three western rivers. i.e Indus, Jhelum and Chenab were given to
>Pakistan. For compensating eastern rivers, system of link canals, barrages
>and dams were to be provided to Pakistan on the expenses of World Bank and
>other international agencies. The apportionment of water from river Indus,
>from Tarbela dam and also from Chashma reservoirs through link canals was
>given to eastern rivers to supplement and irrigate their command areas.
>Thus the water share of Punjab in Indus in normal years was taken away by
>Punjab through Tarbela dam and through link canals. The water of two
>western rivers i.e Jhelum and Chenab and whatever surplus flood water came
>in the eastern rivers was to be utilised by Punjab. Because of acute
>shortage in Sindh, the Sindh province continued their complaint against
>the adhoc distribution in which Punjab was taking away 10 MAF more water
>than Sindh. For resolving the dispute during 1970, Justice Fazal Akber
>committee, was formed for looking into the complaints of Sindh and
>position of Punjab regarding water dispute. Mr. Fazal Akber distributed
>water in the following formula; his committee members did not agree with
>him:-
>Punjab :52.43 MAF
>Sindh :43.79 =
>NWFP :05.32 =
>Balochistan :02.70 =
>Total :104.24 MAF
>The above distribution was more or less equal to adhoc distribution,
>therefore, the Sindh province did not agree and the water dispute remained
>unresolved. After that another committee under the chairmanship of Justice
>Anwar-ul-Haq was formed but because of Martial Law during 1977 that
>commission could not finalise its recommendations. Later on, during 1980
>another committee under the chairmanship of the Supreme Court justice,
>justice Haleem was formed which distributed the water under the following
>formula in the verdict given in 1982:-
>Punjab  :54.49 MAF
>Sindh  :43.04 =
>NWFP  :06.09 =
>Balochistan  :02.11 =
>Total  :105.73 MAF
>
>This commission also disregarded the objections of Sindh province and its
>distribution was more severe than adhoc distribution because in this
>distribution Punjab (half of undivided Punjab) was given 12 MAF more water
>than Sindh, therefore, recommendation of this committee also could not be
>implemented and the water dispute remained unresolved.
>During the year 1991, under the rule of Pakistan Muslim League with Nawaz
>Sharif as its head and prime minister of Pakistan and Jam Saddiq Ali as
>chief minister of Sindh, the water accord was got signed by the so-called
>representatives of Sindh and officers of Sindh government's irrigation
>department on 21st March 1991. Late Jam Saddiq Ali could get the Accord
>signed as he was notoriously known for such high-handednesses and
>excesses.
>According to this Accord, water distribution was done as per following
>formula:-
>Punjab :44.94 MAF
>Sindh :48.76 =
>NWFP :08.78 =
>Balochistan: 03.87 =
>Total :117.35 MAF
>
>In all the reports and recommendations of distributing committees, it was
>calculated that usable water was about 104-105 MAF, but suddenly in the
>water accord of 1991, quantity of usable water was shown to be 117 MAF.
>Apparently these figures were false and fabricated to keep Sindh's people
>satisfied that they were getting 48.76 MAF of water.
>Moreover, Punjab being on upper reach it takes away its full share, there
>will be acute shortage in Sindh and in some cases there will be absolutely
>no water for Sindh during dry season or during rabi season. The above
>mentioned facts can be proved from the record of post-accord flow.
>According to the post-accord flow, average flow of four out of five years
>is 121.80 MAF. If from this flow, system losses which are about 16 MAF are
>deducted then usable water available is only 105 MAF and if Sindh's demand
>that minimum 10 MAF should be left down Kotri Barrage is accepted then net
>quantity of usable water available becomes 95 MAF. Thus difference between
>117 and 95 MAF becomes 22 MAF.
>
>The above mentioned water quantity is further confirmed from Post Tarbela
>dam flow record from 1977 to 1993. The average flow is 102 MAF. If from
>this total quantity, system losses and 10 MAF down Kotri Barrage are
>deducted then net usable water available for distribution will be only 76
>MAF. Thus total quantity of 117 MAF as a usable water for distribution is
>grossly unjustified and totally fabricated  and concocted. During all
>these 18 years, there were of course super floods during the year1978 to
>'79 and 1991 to 1992 when sufficient quantity of water was available with
>the result that surplus water was passed on to the sea also. For
>calculations of water availability the average of only normal years should
>be kept in view. Even WAPDA has agreed that generally four out of five
>years are normal or below normal levels. Thus taking average of all the
>years including those of super floods is not justified and is of no
>consequence for making justifications of high dam project. The Kalabagh
>dam project can only be justified when the average flow of four out of
>five years is more than 142 MAF.
>
>The calculations may vary because of difference of figures given by
>various experts. Moreover, there are cycles of rainfall and dry and wet
>years. During some dry cycles water quantity is as low as 90 MAF only,
>with the result that in such years there becomes acute shortage of water
>as for example during the decade 1961-'70, there was acute shortage,
>during 1971-80 only during one year there was sufficient flow, whereas, in
>rest of the years, there was less flow. Similarly during 1981-90 also
>there was sufficient flow only during one year. Incidentally the current
>decade from 1991-'97, it is a wet cycle and during five consecutive years
>there was sufficient flow. Anyway the high dams are never proposed on
>average flow of wet years or on the basis of calculation for the years of
>super floods.
>
>By any other calculations the usable available quantity of water does not
>generally exceed 95-100 MAF in normal years, therefore, the Water Accord
>is unjustified and construction of Kalabagh dam is also unjustified from
>technical point of view due to non-availability of sufficient quantity of
>water.
>
>Some engineers have taken in view the position during maximum flow years
>but it is not justified because maximum flow years are very rare. Some
>engineers have suggested that average flow should be counted by average
>flows in case of water are of no consequence. The only calculations which
>could be considered and are valid will be those calculations which are
>based on average of normal years, which have been given above. The
>distribution of surplus flood water in the Accord is as follows:-
>Punjab :37%
>Sindh :37%
>NWFP :14%
>Balochistan :12%
>
>For utilisation of the surplus water during flood years or during two
>months of July and August for some of the years, some other alternative
>projects can be considered for Punjab and Sindh provinces. Some of the
>proposals are:-
>
>Raising of Mangla dam by another 40 feet for which provision is already
>there. This will store additional 3.0 MAF.
>As far as water of Indus is concerned, it is the share of Sindh province
>which may be utilised by construction of Sehwan Barrage or Sehwan dam and
>provision of other works for conservation of water by Sindh province for
>which no funds have been provided so far.
>Similarly Sindh was not given due importance for construction of small
>dams on other small tributaries which as Gaj dam, Dao dam etc.
>If lining of all the canals and water courses is done then water
>equivalent to three to four times of the Tarbela reservoir could be saved
>and utilised for cultivation of land thus obviating the necessity of
>construction of the controversial Kalabagh dam.
>A lot of land is being wasted due to water-logging and salinity. If the
>proper schemes are prepared and implemented there land can be reclaimed
>and cultivated thereby increasing food production.
>For conserving extra flood water during super floods, carry-over- dams in
>the upper region at suitable places may be provided and that water can be
>utilised during dry years. Skardu can be one of the most suitable site for
>construction of carry-over-dam. This will also help in reducing the silt
>problem of Tarbela dam thereby increasing its life.
>So far question of maximising power generation is concerned, other
>non-controversial dams upstream of Tarbela dam can be constructed such as
>Ghazi Brotha dam, Basha dam and Thankot dam. From all these dams
>sufficient power can be generated which will suffice our need for many
>decades.
>
>Apart from above mentioned sources, there is great potential of generating
>electric power from Thar coal deposits, cheap electric power can be
>produced which can suffice the need of our country for hundreds of years.
>Atomic energy can be used for producing electric power which is also
>cheaper and is being practised through out the world.
>Solar energy can also be used for generating electric power.
>It is, therefore, crystal clear that Punjab province is unnecessarily bent
>upon constructing Kalabagh dam by giving sometimes excuses of shortage of
>power and sometimes for cultivating lands. Proper technical studies are
>not carried out and the needs of other provinces are being ignored.
>The Punjab province has also proved in the past that they can not be
>trusted because chashma-Jhelum link and Taunsa-Punjnad link were only to
>be operated during flood season but in disregard of agreement, Punjab is
>flowing the said canals round the clock with the result that the Sindh
>province experiences great shortage of water.
>
>After this experiment now Sindh has absolutely no trust in Punjab, it is,
>therefore, considered that Kalabagh dam will be used for black mailing the
>Sindh province for generations to come. Hence Kalabagh dam project is
>considered to be a killer project for Sindh and also anti-Pakistan because
>it weakens the faith in the federation which is already eroded on many
>other counts. The public of Sindh province generally rejected the 1991's
>water Accord during the same year and continued protesting it till date.
>Now the Punjab as well as federation of Pakistan have themselves rejected
>the 1991's Accord by modifying one of the articles of the Accord regarding
>Indus River System Authority which was established in pursuance of the
>Accord. Now this has not remained authority but has been put into command
>of water and power ministry, means completely under the control of federal
>government. Thus it has ceased to be an independent authority which is
>against the spirit of the Accord and hence the smaller provinces will have
>no faith in it whatsoever.
>
>The Sindh province has already suffered huge losses because of acute
>shortage of water during the sowing months of April, May and June.
>Apart from above mentioned losses, Sindh has also suffered on account of
>non-cultivation of Selabi lands during rabi season. Because of Tarbela and
>Mangla reservoirs, other small reservoirs and huge head provided water to
>Sindh, Punjab and NWFP provinces. The water flow to Sindh in normal year
>has reduced.
>
>During almost nine to ten months, there is hardly any flow of water down
>the Kotri barrage with the result that there is danger of sea intrusion
>which will destroy cultivable agricultural land of Thatta district. Its
>supply down Kotri Barrage are rather reduced then there will be ecological
>problems for Thatta District, there will be damages to the rare mangroves
>forests, shrimp cultivation and apalla fish which are earning billions of
>foreign exchange for the country.
>
>Sindh has also suffered in increasing cultivable area in comparison to
>Punjab province. During the years 1820 to 1850 Sindh was cultivating about
>ten lakh acres of land, whereas, Punjab was cultivating seven lakh fifty
>thousands acres of land. By the year 1900 Sindh could increase cultivable
>land up to thirty four lakh acres, whereas, Punjab increased it cultivable
>land up to nineteen lakh acres. By the year 1995 Sindh has been able to
>increased its cultivable land up to only nineteen lac acres, whereas
>Punjab has increased its cultivable land more than sixteen million acres.
>It is however pertinent to point out that cultivable land per head during
>1950 was 0.75 acres. Due to tremendous increase in the population that
>figure has reduced now to 0.33 acres per head. Thus unless now we increase
>yield per acre, it will not be possible to cope with grain shortage. We
>will have to adopt all the measures for increasing yield per acre by
>strengthening agricultural research and other methods of increasing food
>production.
>
>If internationally accepted repairing rights were taken into consideration
>then even Tarbela and Mangla dams were not justified, because on account
>of these dams the selabi lands of Seraiki belt and Sindh province have
>been deprived of  flood water cultivating their lands during flood
>seasons. The inhabitants of lower reaches have more rights to water than
>the inhabitants of upper reaches.
>
>Since three provinces of federation of Pakistan have already rejected the
>construction of Kalabagh Dam, therefore, democratically and politically
>also the project is not justified. Forcible construction of this dam by
>Punjab province will definitely weaken and shake the foundations of the
>federations. It may even result into disintegration of the federation.
>This project can be considered as anti-Pakistan.
>
>
>
>
>
>
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Coordinator, Dam-Reservoir Working Group
Webmistress, Dam-Reservoir Impact and Information Archive
http://www.sandelman.ottawa.on.ca/dams
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