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dam-l NY times article energy
Subject: NYTimes Energy article/LS
> October 31, 1999
>
> Global Economy Slowly Cuts Use of High-Carbon
> Energy
> By WILLIAM K. STEVENS
>
> Even as the world's expanding population
> and economy increase atmospheric
> concentrations of carbon dioxide that
> scientists say are warming the earth, the
> global energy system is moving steadily away
> from the carbon-rich fuels whose combustion
> produces the gas.
>
> Experts say atmospheric levels of carbon
> dioxide may be double that of the
> pre-industrial era by the end of the next
> century. But they also say the levels would
> be much higher except for a trend toward
> lower-carbon fuels that has been going on for
> more than 100 years, but has been largely
> unnoticed except by a small band of energy
> specialists.
>
> The question now, they say, is whether the
> trend can be accelerated enough to stave off
> or lessen what many scientists believe is a
> potentially disruptive global warming.
>
> For nearly a century and a half, fuels with
> high amounts of carbon have progressively
> been replaced by those containing less. First
> wood, which is high in carbon, was eclipsed
> in the late 19th century by coal, which
> contains less.
>
> Then oil, with a lower carbon content still,
> dethroned King Coal in the 1960's.
>
> Now analysts say that natural gas, lighter
> still in carbon, may be entering its heyday,
> and that the day of hydrogen -- providing a
> fuel with no carbon at all, by definition --
> may at last be about to dawn.
>
> As a result, the experts estimate, the
> world's economy today burns less than
> two-thirds as much carbon per unit of energy
> produced as it did in 1860. In the United
> States, they estimate, the trend toward
> lower-carbon fuels combined with greater
> energy efficiency has, since 1950, reduced by
> about half the amount of carbon spewed out
> for each unit of economic production.
>
> But because economic growth and population
> growth have been so rapid over the decades,
> overall atmospheric concentrations of carbon
> dioxide have steadily risen, to the point
> that the concentrations may well have doubled
> by the year 2100.
>
> Mainstream scientists say that this much
> carbon dioxide could warm the earth, on
> average, by 3 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit. By
> comparison, that is about half as much as it
> has warmed since the depths of the last ice
> age 18,000 to 20,000 years ago.
>
> A change of this magnitude would likely have
> widespread consequences for the world's
> climate, weather and human life.
>
> Now, as representatives of 150 governments
> meet in Bonn in the latest round of global
> talks on measures to further reduce
> carbon-dioxide emissions, analysts both in
> and out of industry say that the next
> quarter-century is shaping up as a period of
> technological and economic ferment offering a
> chance to accelerate the trend toward a
> low-carbon economy and, eventually, a
> no-carbon one.
>
> In Bonn, the delegates are trying to work out
> the details of an agreement forged two years
> ago in Kyoto, Japan, that could speed up the
> trend. Their work is not expected to be
> finished for at least a year, and the Kyoto
> agreement still must be ratified by a
> sufficient number of countries after that.
>
> However that may turn out, "the
> decarbonization of the energy system is the
> single most important fact to emerge from the
> last 20 years of analysis" of the system,
> said Dr. Jesse H. Ausubel, an expert on
> energy and climate at Rockefeller University
> in New York City. Dr. Ausubel predicts that
> this evolution will produce a carbon-free
> energy system by the end of the 21st century.
>
> Among some recent signs of the trend are
> these:
>
> * The Federal Energy Information Administration
> reported last week that emissions of carbon
> dioxide by the United States had increased by
> an average of 1.37 percent a year in the
> 1990's -- only about half the 2.6-percent
> rate of growth in economic production.
> Analysts say the discrepancy is evidence that
> the economy is being decoupled from carbon.
>
> * The agency reported this month that the same
> is generally true in China, the biggest
> consumer and producer of coal in the world,
> where coal production has been reported to be
> dropping lately. "China has dispelled a
> commonly held notion that economic growth and
> energy consumption are necessarily coupled,"
> the report said.
>
> * In December, Honda will introduce in the
> United States a high-efficiency,
> low-emissions automobile powered partly by
> gasoline and partly by self-generated
> electricity. It is said to run at 60 miles
> per gallon of gasoline in town, and 71 on the
> highway, and to travel 600 to 700 miles on a
> tank of gas.
>
> Toyota has introduced a similar "hybrid"
> automobile in Japan, and these cars are
> "literally kick-the-tires examples of the
> decarbonized economy," said Hal Harvey,
> president of the Energy Foundation, a
> partnership of foundations that promotes
> energy efficiency and renewable energy.
>
> Other auto makers are also planning hybrids,
> which are being viewed as a transition,
> ultimately, to vehicles powered by hydrogen
> fuel cells that emit no carbon.
>
> In its planning, the General Motors
> Corporation has "embraced fuel cells as the
> technology of choice," but with hybrids
> coming first, said John Williams, the leader
> of the company's internal team on global
> climate issues.
>
> And while auto companies are looking down
> that track, some of the world's biggest
> energy companies are looking to provide the
> appropriate fuels.
>
> Hydrogen, in particular, has attracted fresh
> interest.
>
> Until recently, "the hydrogen option was seen
> as rather distant," said Ged R. Davis, an
> executive of Shell International in London
> who analyzes such questions for Royal
> Dutch/Shell, one of the world's largest
> energy companies. "Now it is looking closer,
> perhaps over the next decade or two," Davis
> added. "Most of the energy and car companies
> are looking at this rather seriously." Shell
> itself has established a hydrogen subsidiary.
>
> In the nearer term, hydrogen would be used in
> fuel cells for cars, trucks and industrial
> plants, just as it already provides power for
> orbiting spacecraft. But ultimately, hydrogen
> could also provide a general carbon-free
> fuel.
>
> The world energy system will not change
> overnight, of course, if it changes at all.
> And new products must ultimately stand the
> test of the marketplace. But some analysts
> say that the next two decades or so will be a
> time of unusual pressure for change, both for
> environmental and economic reasons, in which
> companies will be driven to compete for
> survival and dominance in some sort of
> emerging new energy system.
>
> Whether companies are seriously pursuing new
> options or merely preserving them for the
> future, experts say there seems little doubt
> that the long-term trend toward
> decarbonization is real, and that it will
> most likely continue even in the absence of
> any shift to hydrogen or renewable energy
> sources like wind and solar power.
>
> "The future decarbonization rate is likely to
> be at least as high as the historical one" of
> about three-tenths of a percent a year, said
> Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic, an expert on energy
> and the environment with the International
> Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, a
> research group in Laxenburg, Austria. The
> institute was one of the first groups to
> study the question.
>
> Oil accounts for the biggest share of global
> energy consumption today, followed by coal
> and, closely, by natural gas. In most of the
> world except the United States and China,
> said Dr. Ausubel of Rockefeller University,
> coal is either defunct or on the way out, and
> natural gas will increasingly displace it.
>
> According to several recent analyses, Dr.
> Nakicenovic said, recoverable natural gas now
> appears far more abundant than had been
> previously thought. The burning of gas
> produces, on average, only about a third of
> the carbon dioxide per unit of energy of
> coal, and about two-thirds that of oil.
>
> Gas not only can fuel fixed facilities like
> industrial plants and furnaces, it can also
> be processed to produce hydrogen for use in
> carbon-free fuel cells to power automobiles
> and generate electricity. In those cells,
> there is no combustion; instead, hydrogen
> reacts chemically with oxygen to produce
> electricity. But when hydrogen is extracted
> from gas, the residual carbon must somehow be
> disposed of, possibly by pumping it back into
> depleted oil and gas wells.
>
> Dr. Ausubel predicts that natural gas will
> become the dominant fuel of the next 40 to 50
> years. If so, that alone would be enough to
> continue the long-term decarbonization trend.
>
> China, which some experts think will emerge
> as the biggest carbon-dioxide emitter of the
> 21st century, has greatly reduced its energy
> consumption per unit of economic output, has
> closed several coal mines, is seeking to
> modernize industrial and power plants and is
> moving toward natural gas, many analysts say.
>
> Not least, they say, the Chinese are worried
> about the health effects of coal's air
> pollution. Nevertheless, the Energy
> Information Administration reported last
> week, China's coal demand is expected to
> double by 2020.
>
> So while the trend toward a carbon-free
> economy may continue, Dr. Ausubel says, it
> might not move rapidly enough to assuage the
> fears of those who are most concerned about
> global warming. He says that if the trend
> continues to evolve more or less naturally,
> with business as usual, it will take another
> century or so to decarbonize the energy
> system fully.
>
> By then, he predicts, atmospheric
> concentrations of carbon dioxide will be
> around 500 parts per million, nearly double
> what they were before the industrial
> revolution. Mainstream scientists say that
> would be enough to change the earth's climate
> substantially, make droughts, heat waves and
> floods worse and raise the sea level to
> heights that would threaten many low-lying
> coastal areas and islands.
>
> Some analysts say that 500 parts per million
> is a best-case estimate, and that
> business-as-usual could cause a tripling of
> pre-industrial carbon-dioxide levels.
>
> Other experts think that concentrations could
> be held substantially below 500 parts per
> million if the trend toward decarbonization
> were to accelerate. Harvey of the Energy
> Foundation says "prospects are excellent" for
> an acceleration.
>
> And Davis, the Shell executive, says his
> company's analyses suggest that if the proper
> incentives were in place, new energy
> technologies could be adopted broadly enough
> to bring about a peak in oil use and
> carbon-dioxide emissions by about 2020.
>
> After that, there would be a decline.
>
> One sort of incentive might lie in the Kyoto
> agreement, which calls for a group of 39
> industrialized countries to reduce their
> carbon dioxide emissions by an average of 5
> percent below 1990 levels over the period
> 2008 to 2012.
>
> One mechanism for doing this is a system
> whereby a country that exceeds its reductions
> target can earn money by selling that extra
> reduction to another country that is having
> trouble meeting its target. A similar system,
> involving company-to-company trading, has
> been proposed for the United States.
>
> While negotiators struggle over the terms of
> such arrangements and politicians wrangle
> over putting the Kyoto accord into effect,
> many energy analysts seem to agree on one
> thing: The ultimate goal ought to be a
> carbon-free economy based largely on
> hydrogen. Dr. Ausubel, for one, predicts that
> such an economy will materialize.
>
> Many would agree with Williams of General
> Motors: "I think I'm on pretty solid ground
> in saying the long-term vision is hydrogen.
> But there's a lot of work between here and
> there."
>
>
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>
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> International Rivers Network
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International Rivers Network
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