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DAM-L right to water/ water shortage, food, trade issues. <fwd> SOAS article
Subject: WATER SHORTAGE PIECE: SOAS Water Issues Group
Right to Water (waterrights@iatp.org) Posted: 08/16/2000 By
mritchie@iatp.org
============================================================
Abstract from conference process - the NB is that SOAS (University of
London) has a water issues group
THE WATER, FOOD AND TRADE NEXUS: THE EXPERIENCE OF A WATER SHORT REGION AND
GLOBAL SYSTEMS
By Tony Allan
Water Issues Group, SOAS
The issue of whether there will be enough water for a future global
population double its present size is controversial. The answer to the
question is of particular importance to the peoples and political leaders
of the Middle East and North Africa. The region's economies are already as
dependent on global water as they are on the renewable waters of the
region. They will be much more dependent on global water in future.
The answer is almost certainly a resounding yes. There will be enough fresh
water in the global system. But on the supply side, that is freshwater
availability, the science has not yet been done to prove the future
capacity of the global freshwater system. A researched estimate of
sufficient precision to be useful for politicians and decision makers would
cost many billions of dollars.
On the demand side, freshwater needs are driven by rising populations. Here
the range of the estimates of future global population vary by over fifty
per cent. In this uncertain information domain there is space for numerous
pessimists and optimists to spin counter interpretations. Whether we
believe the optimists, including the author and most economists (Islam
1995, IFPRI 1995 & 1997, Dyson 1994:403), or the pessimists (Brown 1995 and
1996, Brown and Kane 1996, Postel 1997) depends upon the assumptions used
by the respective analysts. Mega questions tend to be ignored; or attract
untestable ideological interpretations of religious intensity. Is there
enough freshwater for future populations is a mega question and it is not
given a fraction of the attention it deserves by scientists.
Key words: water, food, trade, virtual water, Middle East and North Africa,
global
Mark Ritchie, President
Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy
2105 First Ave. South
Minneapolis, Minnesota 55404 USA
612-870-3400 (phone) 612-870-4846 (fax)
mritchie@iatp.org www.iatp.org
http://www.gefoodalert.org